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Assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change

The vulnerability of productivity of sorghum, pearlmillet and soybean was analyzed applying a panel data regression framework using the district level time series data for the period 1971-2004 on yield, monthly average temperature and rainfall and number of rainy days (June to November) in India. The variability in monthly temperature and rainfall was included in the model in the form of coefficient of variation (CV). A time trend variable to capture the technological trend was also included and the cross section dummies in the panel data regression would capture the district specific effects. Using the relationships so obtained, yield levels were projected for the PRECIS A1B scenario for the period 2021-50 (mid-century) and 2071-98 (end-century). The results revealed that sorghum yields would not be affected much during mid-century. However, the yields are projected to be around 1309 kg/ha assuming the current trend in yield growth and ‘climate change’ compared to 1528 kg/ha if there is no climate change. The yield levels are likely to decrease by more than 200 kg/ha compared to a no climate change situation in about 68 districts. Similar results indicating a considerable yield impact were also observed in case of pearlmillet and soybean.


   

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